Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

نویسندگان

  • Tom Britton
  • Thomas House
  • Alun L. Lloyd
  • Denis Mollison
  • Steven Riley
  • Pieter Trapman
چکیده

The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

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عنوان ژورنال:

دوره 10  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2015